Peder D4

Discussion of politics and other odious things

Monday, November 03, 2008

Predictions and election day

Might as well try my hand at the prognostication game.
  • Obama wins nationally by about four points. Not sure where he ends up in the electoral college but a decisve win.
  • Coleman wins over Franken by at least five.
  • Minnesota goes for Obama by about ten points.
  • At least two states are still being counted come Wednesday morning with the likely candidates being Pennsylvania and Virginia.
  • Proposition 8 in California fails.
  • Exit polls will be wildly off in some key states.
I decided months ago that I didn't want to vote for McCain. If all you have is a hammer than all problems start to look like nails. If your job is to pass legislation than regulation seems like the answer to life's problems. Plus I still haven't forgiven McCain-Feingold and the tampering with free speech.
I decided that I could only vote for him in good conscience if it was a meaningful anti-Obama vote. I defined that as Minnesota being close enough, say five points. I don't think it's there and that frees me up to vote my heart. Just another benefit of the electoral college.
My biggest wish is that we're spared any kind of prolonged post-election contest. A 2000 style recount would be disastrous for the country. Probably worse than an actual electoral outcome.

3 Comments:

Blogger Hans said...

McCain is, by far, the lesser of two evils. Surely you've seen Heinlein quoted a number of times in the last week about the value of voting against something even if you're not excited about voting for the other. An Obama presidency mixed with a Democratic-led Congress could do lasting damage to the US. Nuff said.

9:10 PM  
Blogger -Peder said...

Sure and if I thought that my vote would help elect McCain I'd go that route. But it won't in Minnesota, not this year. Even if you add in all of the Libertarian votes to the Republicans, it won't be close.

4:38 AM  
Blogger James Colby said...

Way to go on your predictions, truly impressive.

I'm also happy to see you got to vote your heart, that's always a good feeling. I was so proud to see all those Americans standing in line for hours so they could do their civic duty, not proud that they had to, just proud that they were willing.

I was actually proud that the Republicans nominated McCain, in fact all their top guys, Romney, Huck and even Rudy represented to me a few steps to the center. I didn't see this election as the lesser of 2 evils, but more as 2 good men with different strengths, and one of those men had policies that have merit, but are so very wrong for this moment in history. I know votes are a very personal thing and I won't understand them, but the policies of the last nearly 8 years are indefensible, how can someone vote to stay that course? I'm sure there are some good answers out there, I just don't see them.

I do agree with Hans about the potential for 1 party rule to do lasting damage to this nation, I mean just look what the republicans did to it.

One good point is that it's not the same, the Democrats only have 2 of the 9 Supreme Court justices so there is one check on power. Another good point is in 2 years Americans have a chance to pass judgement on this congress and an awful lot of Democratic Senators are going to be up for election.

2:12 PM  

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